Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4646 at 06:02 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 4646 MCO 06:02 → AUS 07:43 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1576 MCO 16:46 → AUS 18:44 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4646 Southwest	MCO 06:02	AUS 07:43	5%	1%	7.8%	no record
WN 3451 Southwest	MCO 08:48	AUS 10:37	10%	2%	7.8%	no record
DL 2259 Delta Flight history →	MCO 12:35	AUS 14:30	17%	4%	6.3%	82%
F9 4523 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 08:04	AUS 10:02	18%	4%	7.1%	86%
WN 3890 Southwest	MCO 12:31	AUS 14:34	18%	4%	10.6%	no record
DL 794 Delta	MCO 18:18	AUS 20:18	19%	7%	2.6%	no record
WN 2675 Southwest	MCO 19:11	AUS 21:09	24%	6%	3.3%	no record
WN 1576 Southwest	MCO 16:46	AUS 18:44	25%	6%	5.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON