Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 441 at 09:51 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31%.

Safest bet that day WN 441 MCO 09:51 → BDL 12:39 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4984 MCO 19:41 → BDL 22:29 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 441 Southwest	MCO 09:51	BDL 12:39	15%	3%	6.6%	no record
B6 438 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:38	BDL 13:34	18%	9%	5.2%	66%
MX 2440 Breeze	MCO 09:58	BDL 12:41	19%	5%	8.0%	no record
F9 1684 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:35	BDL 17:44	22%	10%	5.8%	83%
B6 138 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:43	BDL 20:37	31%	15%	5.0%	86%worse than usual
WN 4984 Southwest	MCO 19:41	BDL 22:29	31%	7%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON