Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 15 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2680 at 07:23 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 2680 MCO 07:23 → BNA 08:25 · 6% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2205 MCO 18:06 → BNA 19:18 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2680 Southwest	MCO 07:23	BNA 08:25	6%	1%	7.8%	no record
WN 8501 Southwest	MCO 04:57	BNA 05:41	9%	2%	6.7%	no record
WN 2684 Southwest	MCO 09:21	BNA 10:38	12%	2%	6.7%	no record
WN 3146 Southwest	MCO 00:54	BNA 01:53	13%	3%	15.5%	no record
WN 2198 Southwest	MCO 10:31	BNA 11:43	15%	2%	6.1%	no record
F9 1285 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:34	BNA 08:43	18%	5%	7.3%	82%
WN 749 Southwest	MCO 11:36	BNA 12:53	19%	3%	6.4%	no record
WN 2679 Southwest	MCO 13:51	BNA 15:03	21%	6%	12.3%	no record
WN 2683 Southwest	MCO 12:46	BNA 13:53	22%	4%	7.6%	no record
WN 2688 Southwest	MCO 21:14	BNA 22:15	23%	6%	1.8%	no record
WN 2687 Southwest	MCO 20:31	BNA 21:38	24%	7%	1.8%	no record
WN 1194 Southwest	MCO 15:11	BNA 16:23	24%	5%	4.5%	no record
WN 2685 Southwest	MCO 16:06	BNA 17:18	26%	6%	3.9%	no record
F9 3559 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 16:27	BNA 17:43	26%	10%	2.8%	76%
WN 2205 Southwest	MCO 18:06	BNA 19:18	27%	7%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON