Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4187 at 07:01 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 4187 MCO 07:01 → BUF 09:51 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1586 MCO 17:55 → BUF 20:45 · 34% chance 15+ min late · usually 64% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4187 Southwest	MCO 07:01	BUF 09:51	7%	1%	8.7%	no record
WN 1292 Southwest	MCO 20:11	BUF 22:56	30%	7%	4.4%	no record
WN 354 Southwest	MCO 14:36	BUF 17:26	30%	8%	12.7%	no record
B6 1586 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:55	BUF 20:45	34%	13%	5.1%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON