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Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 10:45, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Burbank on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Burbank on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Burbank is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031 1h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 15:05 → BUR 16:12DL 3693 · flown by SkyWest 8h 27m 96% 82%
FrontierDetails → MCO 06:00 → LAS 07:55F9 1875 3h 16m Las Vegas LAS 11:11 → BUR 12:34F9 4107 9h 34m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:43DL 2080 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 11:20 → BUR 12:56DL 483 8h 51m 98% 72%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025 50m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → BUR 11:54DL 3933 · flown by SkyWest 7h 39m 78% 67%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 2h 58m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:24 → BUR 11:49AA 1208 9h 19m 97% 65%
AmericanDetails → MCO 15:38 → DFW 17:35AA 1737 3h 11m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:46 → BUR 21:58AA 2597 9h 20m 95% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON