Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3589 at 06:16 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 3589 MCO 06:16 → BWI 08:40 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest F9 4004 MCO 11:43 → BWI 14:20 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 57% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3589 Southwest	MCO 06:16	BWI 08:40	4%	1%	6.7%	no record
WN 2691 Southwest	MCO 07:26	BWI 10:00	6%	2%	6.9%	no record
F9 3274 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:30	BWI 08:54	11%	3%	9.6%	89%
WN 2693 Southwest Flight history →	MCO 09:26	BWI 11:55	13%	2%	6.1%	67%
WN 952 Southwest	MCO 13:46	BWI 16:15	16%	4%	12.4%	no record
WN 2578 Southwest	MCO 11:16	BWI 13:45	17%	3%	7.1%	no record
WN 4479 Southwest	MCO 16:11	BWI 18:40	20%	5%	4.9%	no record
WN 4567 Southwest	MCO 15:06	BWI 17:35	20%	4%	4.4%	no record
WN 967 Southwest	MCO 18:56	BWI 21:22	20%	4%	2.6%	no record
WN 2696 Southwest	MCO 20:31	BWI 23:00	21%	5%	2.5%	no record
WN 254 Southwest	MCO 17:01	BWI 19:35	22%	5%	5.1%	no record
F9 4004 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:43	BWI 14:20	23%	7%	5.8%	57%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON