Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: F9 1915 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 12–17%.

Safest bet that day F9 1915 MCO 05:20 → CLE 07:56 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest UA 583 MCO 20:33 → CLE 23:10 · 17% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


F9 1915 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 05:20	CLE 07:56	7%	3%	9.2%	87%
UA 486 United Flight history →	MCO 11:35	CLE 14:06	12%	4%	8.0%	92%
F9 2667 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:05	CLE 13:43	14%	5%	8.2%	82%
F9 2251 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 00:04	CLE 02:30	16%	6%	15.0%	59%
WN 4119 Southwest	MCO 14:01	CLE 16:39	17%	5%	13.3%	no record
UA 583 United	MCO 20:33	CLE 23:10	17%	7%	3.8%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON