Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 3275 at 05:57 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 3275 MCO 05:57 → CLT 07:49 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 362 MCO 18:53 → CLT 20:39 · 32% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 3275 American	MCO 05:57	CLT 07:49	7%	3%	11.8%	no record
F9 1760 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:42	CLT 08:38	13%	4%	9.2%	65%
AA 1647 American Flight history →	MCO 07:02	CLT 08:49	14%	3%	7.9%	94%
AA 461 American Flight history →	MCO 08:03	CLT 09:48	16%	4%	7.2%	93%
AA 609 American Flight history →	MCO 09:01	CLT 10:54	17%	5%	6.8%	89%
AA 2170 American	MCO 10:57	CLT 12:38	20%	5%	6.1%	no record
AA 1576 American	MCO 13:29	CLT 15:17	23%	6%	12.0%	no record
F9 2452 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:00	CLT 16:58	24%	8%	8.3%	74%
AA 2917 American Flight history →	MCO 12:10	CLT 13:55	24%	6%	7.5%	80%
AA 1639 American	MCO 15:03	CLT 16:48	27%	7%	5.4%	no record
AA 362 American	MCO 18:53	CLT 20:39	32%	9%	2.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON