Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 984 at 07:36 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 25–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 984 MCO 07:36 → CMH 10:00 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 835 MCO 19:46 → CMH 22:05 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 984 Southwest	MCO 07:36	CMH 10:00	7%	2%	9.6%	no record
WN 1418 Southwest	MCO 12:36	CMH 15:00	20%	5%	10.7%	no record
WN 3512 Southwest	MCO 15:56	CMH 18:20	23%	6%	5.8%	no record
F9 2757 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 19:33	CMH 22:11	25%	9%	3.4%	63%
WN 835 Southwest	MCO 19:46	CMH 22:05	29%	7%	3.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON