Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 5 nonstops are 13–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day F9 1713 MCO 07:41 → CVG 10:14 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 80% on time Riskiest F9 1565 MCO 18:28 → CVG 21:02 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


F9 1713 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:41	CVG 10:14	13%	4%	10.4%	80%
DL 511 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:25	CVG 13:37	15%	4%	4.8%	80%
F9 2547 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 21:32	CVG 00:00	16%	8%	3.6%	75%
WN 250 Southwest	MCO 13:56	CVG 16:20	17%	6%	12.2%	no record
F9 1565 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:28	CVG 21:02	18%	8%	4.5%	82%
DL 5440 Delta flown by Endeavor no forecast: 12-month record	MCO 14:20	CVG 16:38	36%	18%	0.0%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON