Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3885 at 07:12 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3885 MCO 07:12 → DAL 08:57 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 8700 MCO 20:01 → DAL 21:55 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3885 Southwest	MCO 07:12	DAL 08:57	7%	2%	9.3%	no record
WN 21 Southwest	MCO 09:51	DAL 11:50	13%	3%	8.0%	no record
WN 2704 Southwest	MCO 11:11	DAL 13:10	16%	4%	8.3%	no record
WN 3059 Southwest	MCO 14:21	DAL 16:20	21%	5%	12.1%	no record
WN 1376 Southwest	MCO 15:46	DAL 17:45	24%	6%	5.6%	no record
WN 2706 Southwest	MCO 16:56	DAL 18:55	27%	6%	5.6%	no record
WN 1453 Southwest	MCO 19:46	DAL 21:45	32%	8%	7.3%	no record
WN 8700 Southwest	MCO 20:01	DAL 21:55	33%	8%	8.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON