Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2745 at 06:57 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–23%.

Safest bet that day AA 2745 MCO 06:57 → DCA 09:20 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest B6 2324 MCO 13:40 → DCA 15:59 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2745 American Flight history →	MCO 06:57	DCA 09:20	6%	3%	9.2%	92%
WN 4283 Southwest	MCO 08:56	DCA 11:14	9%	3%	7.8%	no record
DL 1003 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:20	DCA 12:32	11%	3%	4.6%	83%
B6 2024 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 08:44	DCA 11:00	14%	5%	8.7%	86%
DL 2729 Delta Flight history →	MCO 20:52	DCA 23:22	15%	5%	2.3%	70%
AA 2128 American Flight history →	MCO 11:44	DCA 14:10	17%	6%	6.3%	75%
AA 1071 American	MCO 14:14	DCA 16:48	19%	6%	9.4%	no record
AA 1614 American	MCO 17:13	DCA 19:45	22%	7%	5.2%	no record
AA 958 American Flight history →	MCO 20:41	DCA 22:59	22%	7%	3.3%	58%
WN 4110 Southwest	MCO 19:21	DCA 21:39	23%	6%	2.1%	no record
WN 1668 Southwest	MCO 13:46	DCA 16:04	23%	5%	12.2%	no record
B6 2324 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 13:40	DCA 15:59	25%	13%	10.4%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON