Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2711 at 06:43 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 15–29%.

Safest bet that day WN 2711 MCO 06:43 → DEN 08:32 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2715 MCO 16:46 → DEN 18:58 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2711 Southwest	MCO 06:43	DEN 08:32	9%	1%	6.9%	no record
WN 2817 Southwest	MCO 09:06	DEN 11:18	11%	2%	5.4%	no record
F9 1733 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:00	DEN 08:07	12%	3%	10.2%	91%
UA 1022 United Flight history →	MCO 10:00	DEN 12:00	12%	3%	6.9%	90%
UA 2307 United	MCO 07:56	DEN 10:06	12%	4%	7.8%	no record
UA 1520 United Flight history →	MCO 12:50	DEN 14:51	15%	4%	10.3%	93%
UA 1770 United Flight history →	MCO 17:17	DEN 19:45	15%	6%	5.0%	69%
F9 4919 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:07	DEN 15:18	16%	5%	13.8%	85%
UA 667 United	MCO 15:30	DEN 17:26	16%	5%	6.2%	no record
WN 2716 Southwest	MCO 20:06	DEN 22:18	20%	4%	2.4%	no record
WN 2714 Southwest	MCO 14:21	DEN 16:33	22%	5%	10.4%	no record
WN 2715 Southwest	MCO 16:46	DEN 18:58	29%	5%	4.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON