Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 2677 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 33–42%.

Safest bet that day AA 2677 MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26 · 8% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest AA 3118 MCO 19:06 → DFW 20:58 · 42% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 2677 American Flight history →	MCO 05:30	DFW 07:26	8%	3%	10.5%	93%
F9 4017 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 05:40	DFW 07:33	11%	3%	13.2%	83%
AA 599 American Flight history →	MCO 07:30	DFW 09:29	14%	4%	9.3%	89%
AA 2961 American Flight history →	MCO 08:24	DFW 10:24	15%	5%	7.5%	93%
F9 2885 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 10:06	DFW 12:13	17%	6%	7.0%	83%
AA 2075 American Flight history →	MCO 09:30	DFW 11:24	18%	5%	6.9%	84%
AA 2136 American Flight history →	MCO 12:55	DFW 14:50	26%	8%	5.1%	59%
AA 1606 American	MCO 14:36	DFW 16:29	28%	8%	5.2%	no record
AA 1737 American Flight history →	MCO 15:38	DFW 17:35	31%	10%	4.3%	70%
F9 1481 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:39	DFW 20:41	33%	17%	16.1%	76%
AA 2457 American	MCO 17:55	DFW 19:56	36%	12%	5.7%	no record
AA 3118 American	MCO 19:06	DFW 20:58	42%	19%	16.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON