Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1201 at 06:05 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–23%.

Safest bet that day DL 1201 MCO 06:05 → DTW 08:54 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 1123 MCO 16:14 → DTW 19:00 · 23% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1201 Delta Flight history →	MCO 06:05	DTW 08:54	6%	2%	6.0%	93%
F9 2529 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 09:07	DTW 11:55	10%	4%	6.8%	78%
DL 2845 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:02	DTW 11:45	11%	2%	6.0%	91%
F9 3363 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 16:06	DTW 18:58	17%	6%	4.8%	90%
DL 1455 Delta Flight history →	MCO 12:28	DTW 15:18	18%	4%	7.1%	79%
DL 2084 Delta	MCO 14:08	DTW 16:50	19%	5%	10.2%	no record
DL 337 Delta Flight history →	MCO 17:51	DTW 20:54	22%	7%	3.9%	62%
DL 1123 Delta	MCO 16:14	DTW 19:00	23%	5%	4.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON