Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 1309 at 05:56 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 14–43%.

Safest bet that day UA 1309 MCO 05:56 → EWR 08:42 · 5% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest B6 1728 MCO 17:00 → EWR 19:51 · 43% chance 15+ min late · usually 53% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 1309 United Flight history →	MCO 05:56	EWR 08:42	5%	2%	9.0%	96%
UA 1105 United Flight history →	MCO 06:30	EWR 09:15	7%	2%	7.1%	95%
UA 1227 United Flight history →	MCO 09:10	EWR 11:53	12%	4%	8.2%	91%
F9 2512 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 22:15	EWR 01:06	14%	7%	3.5%	90%
UA 1081 United	MCO 10:16	EWR 12:51	17%	6%	4.3%	no record
B6 2028 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:53	EWR 12:36	17%	6%	6.6%	81%
UA 254 United	MCO 11:42	EWR 14:17	23%	9%	4.5%	no record
UA 1407 United	MCO 19:13	EWR 22:02	24%	9%	1.8%	no record
UA 1626 United	MCO 12:50	EWR 15:35	25%	9%	5.3%	no record
UA 776 United Flight history →	MCO 17:26	EWR 20:17	28%	10%	3.1%	71%
UA 1643 United Flight history →	MCO 14:37	EWR 17:30	28%	13%	6.5%	74%
B6 2128 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 21:05	EWR 23:47	29%	16%	1.5%	45%
UA 2629 United Flight history →	MCO 16:04	EWR 18:57	30%	13%	3.7%	63%
B6 1728 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:00	EWR 19:51	43%	19%	2.8%	53%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON