Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1917 at 10:31 is the safest bet, 26% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 30–38%.

Safest bet that day WN 1917 MCO 10:31 → FLL 11:45 · 26% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1947 MCO 18:25 → FLL 19:37 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 65% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1917 Southwest	MCO 10:31	FLL 11:45	26%	5%	11.1%	no record
B6 2547 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 10:05	FLL 11:12	30%	11%	7.2%	80%
WN 4941 Southwest	MCO 20:56	FLL 22:10	30%	8%	3.2%	no record
B6 1947 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:25	FLL 19:37	38%	17%	3.6%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON