Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 3601 at 07:11 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–27%.

Safest bet that day WN 3601 MCO 07:11 → HOU 08:52 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1503 MCO 17:26 → HOU 19:07 · 27% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3601 Southwest	MCO 07:11	HOU 08:52	8%	2%	10.1%	no record
WN 2721 Southwest	MCO 08:41	HOU 10:22	12%	2%	9.0%	no record
WN 2724 Southwest	MCO 00:02	HOU 01:09	15%	4%	15.6%	no record
WN 686 Southwest	MCO 12:26	HOU 14:07	22%	5%	10.8%	no record
WN 1301 Southwest	MCO 19:41	HOU 21:22	24%	7%	3.3%	no record
WN 2722 Southwest	MCO 16:06	HOU 17:47	25%	6%	5.1%	no record
WN 1503 Southwest	MCO 17:26	HOU 19:07	27%	8%	5.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON