Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: UA 468 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–20%.

Safest bet that day UA 468 MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time Riskiest F9 2029 MCO 12:26 → IAH 14:11 · 23% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 468 United Flight history →	MCO 07:00	IAH 08:35	10%	4%	9.1%	95%
UA 2611 United Flight history →	MCO 09:10	IAH 10:45	13%	4%	7.9%	88%
UA 2456 United Flight history →	MCO 15:13	IAH 17:03	15%	5%	4.8%	89%
F9 1417 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:00	IAH 08:45	15%	5%	10.2%	87%
UA 2406 United Flight history →	MCO 14:06	IAH 15:40	17%	5%	10.9%	87%
UA 554 United	MCO 12:56	IAH 14:41	17%	6%	8.4%	no record
UA 1493 United Flight history →	MCO 11:57	IAH 13:29	17%	5%	5.5%	95%worse than usual
UA 1872 United Flight history →	MCO 17:19	IAH 18:58	19%	8%	5.0%	66%
F9 3469 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 20:00	IAH 21:52	20%	6%	2.0%	76%
F9 2029 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 12:26	IAH 14:11	23%	6%	7.4%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON