Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2725 at 06:48 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 2725 MCO 06:48 → IND 09:14 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 358 MCO 18:36 → IND 21:09 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2725 Southwest	MCO 06:48	IND 09:14	4%	1%	6.0%	no record
WN 4232 Southwest	MCO 08:11	IND 10:39	7%	2%	7.8%	no record
F9 1539 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 07:43	IND 10:28	8%	4%	10.8%	86%
WN 2247 Southwest	MCO 10:21	IND 12:54	10%	3%	6.0%	no record
F9 4837 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 16:24	IND 19:02	16%	7%	7.1%	79%
WN 2265 Southwest	MCO 12:51	IND 15:24	19%	5%	7.6%	no record
WN 2013 Southwest	MCO 14:26	IND 17:04	19%	6%	9.4%	no record
WN 4986 Southwest	MCO 15:36	IND 18:09	21%	6%	4.5%	no record
WN 2730 Southwest	MCO 20:56	IND 23:29	24%	7%	2.2%	no record
WN 358 Southwest	MCO 18:36	IND 21:09	25%	8%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON