Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4061 at 09:52 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 4061 MCO 09:52 → ISP 12:36 · 12% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2732 MCO 17:31 → ISP 20:15 · 28% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4061 Southwest	MCO 09:52	ISP 12:36	12%	3%	8.0%	no record
B6 546 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 13:08	ISP 15:58	18%	10%	12.2%	90%
F9 1238 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:25	ISP 17:23	18%	10%	8.3%	83%
WN 2732 Southwest	MCO 17:31	ISP 20:15	28%	7%	4.7%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON