Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 2693 at 07:40 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–38%.

Safest bet that day DL 2693 MCO 07:40 → JFK 10:17 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest B6 2984 MCO 16:05 → JFK 18:54 · 38% chance 15+ min late · usually 56% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2693 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:40	JFK 10:17	9%	3%	7.3%	88%
B6 884 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 06:19	JFK 09:05	13%	3%	6.3%	53%
DL 2049 Delta Flight history →	MCO 11:05	JFK 13:46	18%	5%	4.1%	82%
B6 384 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:47	JFK 12:30	21%	7%	5.9%	68%
DL 2019 Delta Flight history →	MCO 14:08	JFK 17:01	22%	8%	5.0%	69%
DL 1685 Delta Flight history →	MCO 18:06	JFK 20:57	23%	8%	2.2%	56%
B6 1084 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:57	JFK 17:44	35%	15%	4.8%	79%worse than usual
B6 1184 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 18:57	JFK 21:37	36%	14%	2.0%	91%worse than usual
B6 2984 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 16:05	JFK 18:54	38%	15%	3.6%	56%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON