Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2381 at 06:25 is the safest bet, 8% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29–31%.

Safest bet that day WN 2381 MCO 06:25 → LAS 08:10 · 8% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 578 MCO 16:01 → LAS 18:09 · 31% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2381 Southwest	MCO 06:25	LAS 08:10	8%	1%	6.0%	no record
F9 1875 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:00	LAS 07:55	15%	3%	8.0%	90%
B6 2821 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 09:35	LAS 11:28	20%	5%	5.3%	89%
WN 2734 Southwest	MCO 11:51	LAS 13:59	23%	4%	4.9%	no record
WN 1580 Southwest	MCO 18:21	LAS 20:29	29%	8%	2.4%	no record
WN 578 Southwest	MCO 16:01	LAS 18:09	31%	11%	3.3%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 22m Atlanta	ATL 08:25 → LAS 09:31DL 777	7h 01m	96%	75%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:43DL 2080	1h 12m Atlanta	ATL 09:55 → LAS 11:00DL 945	6h 55m	93%	72%
United Details →	MCO 09:10 → IAH 10:45UA 2611	1h 10m Houston	IAH 11:55 → LAS 13:13UA 1524	7h 03m	90%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON