Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 9 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 1573 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 1573 MCO 07:00 → LGA 09:41 · 7% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest B6 698 MCO 14:33 → LGA 17:13 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 73% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1573 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:00	LGA 09:41	7%	2%	9.0%	91%
DL 1164 Delta Flight history →	MCO 10:48	LGA 13:26	12%	4%	4.0%	84%
DL 2564 Delta Flight history →	MCO 16:00	LGA 19:05	16%	5%	3.9%	72%
DL 1511 Delta Flight history →	MCO 13:48	LGA 16:24	19%	6%	6.5%	76%
AA 3038 American	MCO 11:22	LGA 14:07	21%	7%	5.3%	no record
AA 902 American Flight history →	MCO 18:12	LGA 21:07	26%	8%	2.8%	41%
B6 1098 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 17:15	LGA 20:03	29%	14%	3.9%	60%
B6 598 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:27	LGA 15:07	30%	12%	5.1%	78%
B6 698 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:33	LGA 17:13	31%	14%	5.0%	73%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON