tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2288 at 10:11 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 24%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 2288 Southwest MCO 10:11 MEM 11:30 14% 3% 6.9% no record
WN 4898 Southwest MCO 19:46 MEM 21:05 24% 7% 2.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Memphis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Memphis is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:05 → DTW 08:54DL 1201 1h 19m Detroit DTW 10:13 → MEM 11:15DL 1627 6h 10m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:43DL 2080 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → MEM 12:32DL 2778 6h 27m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250 1h 39m Minneapolis MSP 11:05 → MEM 13:17DL 4063 · flown by SkyWest 7h 17m 97% 80%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 1h 27m Atlanta ATL 08:30 → MEM 08:57DL 1149 4h 27m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → MCO 11:05 → ATL 12:43DL 1213 3h 50m Atlanta ATL 16:33 → MEM 16:56DL 1681 6h 51m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505 3h 03m Atlanta ATL 13:48 → MEM 14:11DL 733 6h 06m 99% 78%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:44DL 2204 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 14:50 → MEM 15:09DL 1700 6h 04m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → MCO 12:28 → DTW 15:18DL 1455 2h 31m Detroit DTW 17:49 → MEM 18:55DL 3049 7h 27m 98% 77%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 20:25 → MIA 21:46AA 1642 52m Miami MIA 22:38 → MEM 23:59AA 1551 4h 34m 60% 38%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON