Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–24% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 4802 Southwest	MCO 12:37	MHT 15:42	17%	4%	6.2%	no record
WN 1403 Southwest	MCO 19:51	MHT 22:56	24%	5%	1.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Manchester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MCO 09:26 → BWI 11:55WN 2693	2h 45m Baltimore	BWI 14:40 → MHT 16:16WN 672	6h 50m	100%	83%
American Details →	MCO 08:23 → ORD 10:23AA 2279	3h 41m Chicago	ORD 14:04 → MHT 17:28AA 3720 · flown by Envoy	9h 05m	100%	73%
American Details →	MCO 15:25 → ORD 17:30AA 3031	2h 47m Chicago	ORD 20:17 → MHT 23:47AA 4149 · flown by Envoy	8h 22m	95%	71%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON