Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4985 at 06:06 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 4985 MCO 06:06 → MKE 07:56 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4165 MCO 17:26 → MKE 19:25 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4985 Southwest	MCO 06:06	MKE 07:56	4%	1%	7.2%	no record
WN 3903 Southwest	MCO 11:26	MKE 13:35	13%	3%	7.0%	no record
WN 3029 Southwest	MCO 00:00	MKE 01:31	13%	3%	13.3%	no record
WN 574 Southwest	MCO 14:31	MKE 16:35	19%	5%	10.6%	no record
WN 4165 Southwest	MCO 17:26	MKE 19:25	24%	6%	4.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON