Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 6–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 1250 MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 2225 MCO 18:24 → MSP 21:00 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 59% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1250 Delta Flight history →	MCO 07:00	MSP 09:26	6%	2%	6.8%	93%
DL 1730 Delta Flight history →	MCO 12:22	MSP 14:56	14%	4%	7.6%	90%
DL 1208 Delta Flight history →	MCO 15:00	MSP 17:39	15%	5%	4.6%	74%
DL 2225 Delta Flight history →	MCO 18:24	MSP 21:00	15%	6%	2.4%	59%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON