Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2765 at 01:04 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–22%.

Safest bet that day WN 2765 MCO 01:04 → MSY 02:03 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1938 MCO 17:11 → MSY 18:15 · 22% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2765 Southwest	MCO 01:04	MSY 02:03	7%	2%	17.7%	no record
WN 3665 Southwest	MCO 08:37	MSY 09:21	11%	2%	7.2%	no record
WN 2762 Southwest	MCO 11:01	MSY 12:15	15%	3%	8.1%	no record
F9 1431 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 13:53	MSY 14:48	18%	6%	13.6%	82%
WN 2763 Southwest	MCO 14:11	MSY 15:15	19%	5%	12.5%	no record
F9 3553 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:33	MSY 19:28	19%	8%	4.5%	88%
WN 1251 Southwest	MCO 19:06	MSY 20:05	20%	6%	2.5%	no record
WN 1938 Southwest	MCO 17:11	MSY 18:15	22%	7%	5.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON