Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 15:41, is the safest bet: 50% chance of reaching Oklahoma City on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 63% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2766 Southwest	MCO 15:16	OKC 17:26	19%	7%	4.3%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Oklahoma City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Oklahoma City is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	2h 50m Atlanta	ATL 09:53 → OKC 11:08DL 2490	6h 38m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505	3h 05m Atlanta	ATL 13:50 → OKC 14:56DL 2862	6h 51m	99%	77%
American Details →	MCO 06:57 → DCA 09:20AA 2745	3h 08m Washington	DCA 12:28 → OKC 14:48AA 5017 · flown by PSA	8h 51m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	MCO 12:22 → MSP 14:56DL 1730	3h 14m Minneapolis	MSP 18:10 → OKC 20:15DL 3791 · flown by SkyWest	8h 53m	100%	75%
American Details →	MCO 07:02 → CLT 08:49AA 1647	1h 54m Charlotte	CLT 10:43 → OKC 12:25AA 1626	6h 23m	98%	74%
United Details →	MCO 10:00 → DEN 12:00UA 1022	1h 25m Denver	DEN 13:25 → OKC 16:10UA 1656	7h 10m	95%	72%
American Details →	MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677	1h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 09:16 → OKC 10:29AA 1902	5h 59m	97%	68%
Delta Details →	MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:46DL 1150	2h 58m Atlanta	ATL 22:44 → OKC 23:52DL 2423	7h 07m	94%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MCO 15:41 → ATL 17:17DL 1576	48m Atlanta	ATL 18:05 → OKC 19:16DL 2784	4h 35m	72%	50%
American Details →	MCO 15:25 → ORD 17:30AA 3031	47m Chicago	ORD 18:17 → OKC 20:35AA 6493 · flown by SkyWest	6h 10m	63%	40%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON