tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Ontario on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Ontario on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Ontario is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025 1h 29m Salt Lake City SLC 11:24 → ONT 12:22DL 1173 8h 07m 96% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → SEA 12:12DL 347 2h 18m Seattle SEA 14:30 → ONT 17:21DL 4031 · flown by SkyWest 11h 16m 99% 77%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 2h 18m Atlanta ATL 09:21 → ONT 10:38DL 665 8h 08m 97% 75%
UnitedDetails → MCO 15:13 → IAH 17:03UA 2456 3h 28m Houston IAH 20:31 → ONT 21:55UA 1563 9h 42m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → MCO 08:24 → DFW 10:24AA 2961 1h 56m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:20 → ONT 13:34AA 2635 8h 10m 98% 68%
DeltaDetails → MCO 12:05 → ATL 13:45DL 1658 3h 20m Atlanta ATL 17:05 → ONT 18:30DL 2891 9h 25m 98% 68%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 3h 14m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 10:40 → ONT 11:56AA 2956 9h 26m 97% 64%
UnitedDetails → MCO 14:25 → ORD 16:43UA 2481 3h 35m Chicago ORD 20:18 → ONT 22:51UA 658 11h 26m 97% 59%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlueDetails → MCO 14:57 → JFK 17:44B6 1084 1h 05m New York JFK 18:49 → ONT 21:59B6 355 10h 02m 70% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON