Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 13 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: AA 938 at 06:30 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 16–32%.

Safest bet that day AA 938 MCO 06:30 → ORD 08:36 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest AA 1782 MCO 16:50 → ORD 19:04 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 42% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


AA 938 American Flight history →	MCO 06:30	ORD 08:36	9%	3%	8.0%	91%
UA 1993 United	MCO 07:11	ORD 09:11	13%	5%	11.2%	no record
UA 2683 United Flight history →	MCO 09:40	ORD 11:48	14%	5%	10.1%	94%
F9 1349 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 21:27	ORD 23:42	16%	8%	2.8%	76%
AA 2279 American Flight history →	MCO 08:23	ORD 10:23	18%	5%	8.0%	76%
UA 2475 United Flight history →	MCO 12:30	ORD 14:38	20%	7%	9.5%	82%
UA 1621 United Flight history →	MCO 19:40	ORD 22:00	20%	7%	2.3%	70%
UA 2481 United Flight history →	MCO 14:25	ORD 16:43	22%	7%	11.9%	72%
AA 662 American	MCO 11:41	ORD 13:45	23%	8%	6.3%	no record
UA 2845 United	MCO 17:56	ORD 19:59	27%	7%	4.7%	no record
AA 3031 American Flight history →	MCO 15:25	ORD 17:30	28%	8%	4.6%	64%
UA 2071 United Flight history →	MCO 16:21	ORD 18:39	29%	7%	4.6%	58%
AA 1782 American Flight history →	MCO 16:50	ORD 19:04	32%	9%	4.7%	42%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON