Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2295 at 08:50 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 2295 Southwest	MCO 08:50	ORF 10:51	10%	4%	7.3%	no record
F9 2288 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:29	ORF 20:39	22%	10%	4.0%	79%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Norfolk on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 06:05 → DTW 08:54DL 1201	1h 11m Detroit	DTW 10:05 → ORF 11:57DL 3066	5h 52m	96%	82%
Southwest Details →	MCO 09:26 → BWI 11:55WN 2693	2h 25m Baltimore	BWI 14:20 → ORF 15:26WN 1549	6h 00m	100%	81%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:43DL 2080	3h 43m Atlanta	ATL 12:26 → ORF 14:06DL 2925	7h 01m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505	3h 57m Atlanta	ATL 14:42 → ORF 16:22DL 1101	7h 17m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → ORF 09:46DL 2755	4h 16m	94%	78%
American Details →	MCO 10:46 → PHL 13:26AA 629	3h 19m Philadelphia	PHL 16:45 → ORF 18:13AA 5632 · flown by PSA	7h 27m	98%	78%
JetBlue Details →	MCO 10:10 → BOS 13:13B6 552	2h 16m Boston	BOS 15:29 → ORF 17:12B6 1813	7h 02m	99%	77%
American Details →	MCO 08:03 → CLT 09:48AA 461	4h 00m Charlotte	CLT 13:48 → ORF 15:09AA 1323	7h 06m	100%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MCO 17:51 → DTW 20:54DL 337	46m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → ORF 23:32DL 412	5h 41m	70%	57%
Delta Details →	MCO 19:52 → ATL 21:33DL 1497	59m Atlanta	ATL 22:32 → ORF 00:19 +1DL 2338	4h 27m	73%	57%
JetBlue Details →	MCO 18:25 → FLL 19:37B6 1947	49m Fort Lauderdale	FLL 20:26 → ORF 22:51B6 1800	4h 26m	53%	37%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON