Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Portland on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 70% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 301 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 17:29	PDX 20:34	23%	6%	5.0%	70%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Portland on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Portland is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250	1h 25m Minneapolis	MSP 10:51 → PDX 12:40DL 1661	8h 40m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	MCO 12:22 → MSP 14:56DL 1730	3h 38m Minneapolis	MSP 18:34 → PDX 20:15DL 2151	10h 53m	100%	83%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:43DL 2080	2h 17m Atlanta	ATL 11:00 → PDX 12:58DL 2206	8h 53m	98%	81%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:45 → LAX 11:49DL 504	2h 30m Los Angeles	LAX 14:19 → PDX 16:34DL 2551	9h 49m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	MCO 06:28 → LAX 08:35DL 484	1h 25m Los Angeles	LAX 10:00 → PDX 12:20DL 2766	8h 52m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025	1h 20m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:15 → PDX 12:10DL 1209	7h 55m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 27m Atlanta	ATL 08:30 → PDX 10:27DL 539	7h 57m	96%	79%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:05 → SEA 12:12DL 347	3h 54m Seattle	SEA 16:06 → PDX 17:12DL 3918 · flown by SkyWest	11h 07m	100%	78%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MCO 14:05 → ATL 15:55DL 1030	50m Atlanta	ATL 16:45 → PDX 18:49DL 503	7h 44m	74%	56%
United Details →	MCO 16:04 → EWR 18:57UA 2629	1h 06m Newark	EWR 20:03 → PDX 23:01UA 560	9h 57m	70%	47%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON