Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · 14 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1679 at 08:51 is the safest bet, 11% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–30%.

Safest bet that day WN 1679 MCO 08:51 → PHL 11:28 · 11% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1495 MCO 19:56 → PHL 22:28 · 30% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1679 Southwest	MCO 08:51	PHL 11:28	11%	3%	7.8%	no record
AA 1228 American Flight history →	MCO 07:28	PHL 10:05	12%	3%	7.9%	94%
F9 2506 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:43	PHL 09:37	12%	4%	7.1%	69%
AA 2779 American Flight history →	MCO 08:25	PHL 11:09	14%	4%	6.7%	81%
F9 1542 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 09:00	PHL 11:51	16%	6%	7.4%	87%
AA 629 American Flight history →	MCO 10:46	PHL 13:26	17%	5%	4.7%	92%
F9 3856 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 10:56	PHL 13:48	20%	7%	5.5%	70%
AA 1574 American	MCO 12:28	PHL 15:13	22%	6%	6.3%	no record
F9 4404 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 19:33	PHL 22:22	24%	11%	2.7%	59%
F9 2508 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 21:59	PHL 00:37	25%	10%	2.7%	48%
AA 3153 American Flight history →	MCO 16:23	PHL 19:14	26%	7%	4.6%	70%
AA 3268 American	MCO 15:15	PHL 18:04	26%	7%	4.6%	no record
AA 2523 American	MCO 17:43	PHL 20:29	27%	8%	4.6%	no record
WN 1495 Southwest	MCO 19:56	PHL 22:28	30%	7%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON