Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 15–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day WN 1125 MCO 10:16 → PHX 12:03 · 15% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2778 MCO 18:46 → PHX 20:33 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1125 Southwest	MCO 10:16	PHX 12:03	15%	3%	4.7%	no record
AA 1605 American	MCO 07:45	PHX 09:35	16%	4%	6.7%	no record
WN 4405 Southwest	MCO 14:16	PHX 16:03	19%	5%	9.4%	no record
WN 2778 Southwest	MCO 18:46	PHX 20:33	20%	7%	1.9%	no record

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 08:10 → PHX 09:01DL 348	6h 31m	95%	74%
United Details →	MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468	1h 05m Houston	IAH 09:40 → PHX 10:34UA 1895	6h 34m	91%	71%
American Details →	MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677	1h 29m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 08:55 → PHX 09:29AA 520	6h 59m	94%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON