Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 563 at 07:31 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–20%.

Safest bet that day WN 563 MCO 07:31 → PIT 10:00 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2783 MCO 17:41 → PIT 20:10 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 563 Southwest	MCO 07:31	PIT 10:00	5%	2%	11.1%	no record
WN 4811 Southwest	MCO 08:46	PIT 11:15	8%	2%	9.6%	no record
WN 2306 Southwest	MCO 11:26	PIT 13:55	12%	4%	9.2%	no record
F9 1620 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 11:06	PIT 13:35	13%	7%	4.1%	77%
WN 2781 Southwest	MCO 14:26	PIT 16:55	15%	5%	12.3%	no record
WN 4943 Southwest	MCO 16:11	PIT 18:40	17%	7%	4.9%	no record
WN 846 Southwest	MCO 19:26	PIT 21:55	18%	7%	3.4%	no record
WN 2783 Southwest	MCO 17:41	PIT 20:10	20%	8%	5.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON