Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: one nonstop, MX 1556 at 12:00, with a 23% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


MX 1556 Breeze	MCO 12:00	PNS 12:41	23%	6%	8.8%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Pensacola on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Pensacola is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 08:05 → ATL 09:42DL 1463	3h 03m Atlanta	ATL 12:45 → PNS 12:55DL 1640	5h 50m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505	3h 45m Atlanta	ATL 14:30 → PNS 14:41DL 1013	6h 36m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:43DL 2080	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 10:34 → PNS 10:46DL 3198	4h 41m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	1h 02m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → PNS 08:17DL 3103	3h 47m	93%	76%
Delta Details →	MCO 12:05 → ATL 13:45DL 1658	3h 10m Atlanta	ATL 16:55 → PNS 17:10DL 2211	6h 05m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	MCO 15:41 → ATL 17:17DL 1576	3h 21m Atlanta	ATL 20:38 → PNS 20:51DL 3021	6h 10m	94%	72%
American Details →	MCO 07:02 → CLT 08:49AA 1647	2h 03m Charlotte	CLT 10:52 → PNS 11:39AA 2476	5h 37m	97%	70%
Delta Details →	MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:46DL 1150	1h 51m Atlanta	ATL 21:37 → PNS 21:59DL 3086	5h 14m	86%	69%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	MCO 17:45 → ATL 19:46DL 1150	52m Atlanta	ATL 20:38 → PNS 20:51DL 3021	4h 06m	66%	50%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON