Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1474 at 07:21 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 16–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1474 MCO 07:21 → PVD 10:15 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1075 MCO 14:06 → PVD 17:03 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 69% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1474 Southwest	MCO 07:21	PVD 10:15	7%	2%	5.4%	no record
WN 4206 Southwest	MCO 14:06	PVD 17:00	16%	4%	9.3%	no record
WN 673 Southwest	MCO 20:07	PVD 22:51	24%	5%	2.4%	no record
B6 1075 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 14:06	PVD 17:03	25%	10%	6.4%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON