Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 7 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1585 at 08:44 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–25%.

Safest bet that day WN 1585 MCO 08:44 → RDU 10:37 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1583 MCO 20:01 → RDU 21:56 · 25% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1585 Southwest	MCO 08:44	RDU 10:37	9%	3%	6.1%	no record
DL 1337 Delta Flight history →	MCO 08:43	RDU 10:26	12%	4%	7.9%	88%
F9 1112 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 10:57	RDU 12:43	16%	6%	9.5%	80%
F9 1786 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 14:37	RDU 16:40	18%	8%	16.2%	77%
DL 1312 Delta Flight history →	MCO 16:04	RDU 17:55	18%	6%	4.6%	77%
WN 3269 Southwest	MCO 16:06	RDU 18:01	25%	7%	3.6%	no record
WN 1583 Southwest	MCO 20:01	RDU 21:56	25%	7%	2.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON