tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 24–26% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1731 Southwest MCO 13:46 RIC 15:49 24% 6% 15.5% no record
B6 670 JetBlue Flight history → MCO 14:09 RIC 16:18 26% 12% 10.4% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Richmond on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:02 → DTW 11:45DL 2845 2h 51m Detroit DTW 14:36 → RIC 16:21DL 4096 · flown by SkyWest 7h 19m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505 3h 00m Atlanta ATL 13:45 → RIC 15:20DL 3152 6h 15m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 2h 37m Atlanta ATL 09:40 → RIC 11:19DL 2650 5h 49m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → MCO 11:05 → ATL 12:43DL 1213 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 15:49 → RIC 17:30DL 1214 6h 25m 98% 78%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:02 → CLT 08:49AA 1647 1h 49m Charlotte CLT 10:38 → RIC 12:04AA 5119 · flown by PSA 5h 02m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:10 → EWR 11:53UA 1227 3h 22m Newark EWR 15:15 → RIC 16:56UA 3639 · flown by Republic 7h 46m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:10 → IAH 10:45UA 2611 1h 18m Houston IAH 12:03 → RIC 16:11UA 4057 · flown by Mesa 7h 01m 94% 76%
UnitedDetails → MCO 09:37 → IAD 11:55UA 1893 1h 05m Dulles IAD 13:00 → RIC 14:01UA 4535 · flown by GoJet 4h 24m 91% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 08:03 → CLT 09:48AA 461 50m Charlotte CLT 10:38 → RIC 12:04AA 5119 · flown by PSA 4h 01m 70% 56%
DeltaDetails → MCO 17:51 → DTW 20:54DL 337 46m Detroit DTW 21:40 → RIC 23:28DL 4679 · flown by Endeavor 5h 37m 70% 50%
JetBlueDetails → MCO 18:25 → FLL 19:37B6 1947 1h 18m Fort Lauderdale FLL 20:55 → RIC 23:18B6 1146 4h 53m 66% 46%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON