Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 17–20% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


WN 588 Southwest	MCO 12:21	ROC 15:04	17%	4%	7.3%	no record
B6 1042 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 11:16	ROC 14:04	20%	8%	5.0%	65%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Rochester on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Southwest Details →	MCO 09:26 → BWI 11:55WN 2693	3h 10m Baltimore	BWI 15:05 → ROC 16:29WN 901	7h 03m	100%	81%
American Details →	MCO 07:02 → CLT 08:49AA 1647	1h 33m Charlotte	CLT 10:22 → ROC 12:22AA 2742	5h 20m	94%	76%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	2h 20m Atlanta	ATL 09:23 → ROC 11:31DL 2511	6h 01m	97%	76%
American Details →	MCO 16:23 → PHL 19:14AA 3153	2h 56m Philadelphia	PHL 22:10 → ROC 23:41AA 6090 · flown by Piedmont	7h 18m	100%	75%
American Details →	MCO 07:28 → PHL 10:05AA 1228	3h 12m Philadelphia	PHL 13:17 → ROC 14:48AA 5907 · flown by Piedmont	7h 17m	99%	71%
Delta Details →	MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:44DL 2204	3h 31m Atlanta	ATL 15:15 → ROC 17:20DL 2047	7h 15m	98%	71%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:02 → DTW 11:45DL 2845	2h 40m Detroit	DTW 14:25 → ROC 15:48DL 5211 · flown by Endeavor	6h 46m	99%	67%
United Details →	MCO 19:05 → IAD 21:30UA 1997	1h 07m Dulles	IAD 22:37 → ROC 23:58UA 4394 · flown by GoJet	4h 53m	86%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	MCO 11:44 → DCA 14:10AA 2128	48m Washington	DCA 14:58 → ROC 16:36AA 5457 · flown by PSA	4h 52m	65%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON