tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 19–27% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 383 Southwest MCO 10:46 RSW 11:47 19% 4% 7.0% no record
WN 2793 Southwest MCO 21:01 RSW 22:10 27% 10% 3.1% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fort Myers on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
SouthwestDetails → MCO 09:26 → BWI 11:55WN 2693 1h 35m Baltimore BWI 13:30 → RSW 16:20WN 4595 6h 54m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:02 → DTW 11:45DL 2845 2h 43m Detroit DTW 14:28 → RSW 17:22DL 1225 8h 20m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:43DL 2080 3h 06m Atlanta ATL 11:49 → RSW 13:36DL 1153 6h 31m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:44DL 2204 3h 15m Atlanta ATL 14:59 → RSW 16:44DL 1379 6h 39m 96% 72%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 1h 02m Atlanta ATL 08:05 → RSW 09:47DL 1089 4h 17m 93% 71%
DeltaDetails → MCO 12:05 → ATL 13:45DL 1658 3h 22m Atlanta ATL 17:07 → RSW 18:55DL 1124 6h 50m 98% 68%
UnitedDetails → MCO 15:13 → IAH 17:03UA 2456 1h 28m Houston IAH 18:31 → RSW 22:11UA 2095 6h 58m 89% 68%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:02 → CLT 08:49AA 1647 3h 26m Charlotte CLT 12:15 → RSW 14:14AA 2018 7h 12m 99% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 15:38 → DFW 17:35AA 1737 1h 16m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 18:51 → RSW 22:38AA 1267 7h 00m 75% 42%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON