tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 05:30, is the safest bet: 71% chance of reaching San Diego on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 71% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
AS 707 Alaska MCO 07:22 SAN 09:23 19% 3% 7.9% no record
WN 765 Southwest MCO 14:11 SAN 16:40 30% 7% 9.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Diego on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Diego is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250 2h 03m Minneapolis MSP 11:29 → SAN 13:25DL 2125 9h 25m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → MCO 12:22 → MSP 14:56DL 1730 3h 34m Minneapolis MSP 18:30 → SAN 20:15DL 2145 10h 53m 100% 77%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:45 → LAX 11:49DL 504 2h 22m Los Angeles LAX 14:11 → SAN 15:08DL 4001 · flown by SkyWest 8h 23m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:05 → DTW 08:54DL 1201 3h 37m Detroit DTW 12:31 → SAN 14:14DL 761 11h 09m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:43DL 2080 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 11:50 → SAN 13:08DL 540 9h 03m 99% 74%
JetBlueDetails → MCO 10:10 → BOS 13:13B6 552 3h 07m Boston BOS 16:20 → SAN 19:27B6 319 12h 17m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025 1h 15m Salt Lake City SLC 11:10 → SAN 12:08DL 1296 7h 53m 94% 73%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 2h 59m Atlanta ATL 10:02 → SAN 11:25DL 843 8h 55m 99% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → MCO 16:04 → EWR 18:57UA 2629 1h 07m Newark EWR 20:04 → SAN 22:57UA 1102 9h 53m 71% 43%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON