tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: WN 4042 at 09:16 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 22%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 4042 Southwest MCO 09:16 SAT 11:20 10% 3% 5.2% no record
WN 246 Southwest MCO 18:31 SAT 20:35 22% 6% 1.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Antonio on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Antonio is 1 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:05 → DTW 08:54DL 1201 2h 56m Detroit DTW 11:50 → SAT 13:59DL 2458 8h 54m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:43DL 2080 3h 32m Atlanta ATL 12:15 → SAT 13:38DL 1408 7h 33m 99% 79%
UnitedDetails → MCO 10:00 → DEN 12:00UA 1022 1h 44m Denver DEN 13:44 → SAT 16:55UA 1022 7h 55m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → MCO 06:28 → LAX 08:35DL 484 1h 20m Los Angeles LAX 09:55 → SAT 14:53DL 2568 9h 25m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 1h 17m Atlanta ATL 08:20 → SAT 09:43DL 1676 5h 13m 96% 76%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → ATL 10:45DL 1505 3h 55m Atlanta ATL 14:40 → SAT 16:05DL 2009 8h 00m 99% 75%
AmericanDetails → MCO 11:44 → DCA 14:10AA 2128 2h 49m Washington DCA 16:59 → SAT 19:40AA 1947 8h 56m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → MCO 07:00 → IAH 08:35UA 468 1h 04m Houston IAH 09:39 → SAT 10:46UA 6201 · flown by Mesa 4h 46m 91% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → MCO 12:10 → CLT 13:55AA 2917 54m Charlotte CLT 14:49 → SAT 16:50AA 2934 5h 40m 67% 47%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON