Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 2324 at 06:24 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 13–24%.

Safest bet that day WN 2324 MCO 06:24 → SDF 08:31 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 4066 MCO 18:46 → SDF 21:05 · 24% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2324 Southwest	MCO 06:24	SDF 08:31	4%	1%	6.7%	no record
WN 558 Southwest	MCO 09:04	SDF 11:14	13%	3%	6.7%	no record
WN 1725 Southwest	MCO 13:06	SDF 15:25	18%	4%	10.5%	no record
WN 2327 Southwest	MCO 15:16	SDF 17:35	23%	6%	4.7%	no record
WN 4066 Southwest	MCO 18:46	SDF 21:05	24%	8%	2.5%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON