Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: DL 347 at 09:05 is the safest bet, 15% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–36%.

Safest bet that day DL 347 MCO 09:05 → SEA 12:12 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time Riskiest AS 419 MCO 19:18 → SEA 21:56 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 77% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 347 Delta Flight history →	MCO 09:05	SEA 12:12	15%	3%	6.1%	86%
AS 1318 Alaska	MCO 08:59	SEA 11:42	23%	4%	8.9%	no record
DL 328 Delta Flight history →	MCO 18:45	SEA 22:05	24%	7%	2.5%	68%
AS 419 Alaska Flight history →	MCO 19:18	SEA 21:56	36%	8%	4.0%	77%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	MCO 07:05 → ATL 08:43DL 2080	1h 07m Atlanta	ATL 09:50 → SEA 12:13DL 774	8h 08m	92%	73%
Delta Details →	MCO 10:05 → ATL 11:44DL 2204	49m Atlanta	ATL 12:33 → SEA 14:50DL 629	7h 45m	83%	67%
Alaska Details →	MCO 17:29 → PDX 20:34AS 301	56m Portland	PDX 21:30 → SEA 22:27AS 2421 · flown by Horizon	7h 58m	76%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON