tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Seattle, leaving 09:05, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching San Jose on time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach San Jose on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (San Jose is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:05 → SEA 12:12DL 347 2h 33m Seattle SEA 14:45 → SJC 17:05DL 3897 · flown by SkyWest 11h 00m 99% 81%
DeltaDetails → MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025 1h 45m Salt Lake City SLC 11:40 → SJC 12:35DL 1254 8h 20m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548 2h 40m Atlanta ATL 09:43 → SJC 11:30DL 809 9h 00m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031 1h 49m Salt Lake City SLC 15:10 → SJC 16:04DL 1260 8h 19m 96% 75%
DeltaDetails → MCO 09:45 → LAX 11:49DL 504 1h 08m Los Angeles LAX 12:57 → SJC 14:12DL 3842 · flown by SkyWest 7h 27m 88% 75%
DeltaDetails → MCO 15:41 → ATL 17:17DL 1576 2h 33m Atlanta ATL 19:50 → SJC 21:41DL 933 9h 00m 93% 71%
AmericanDetails → MCO 05:30 → DFW 07:26AA 2677 1h 50m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 09:16 → SJC 11:04AA 2046 8h 34m 97% 70%
AmericanDetails → MCO 07:30 → DFW 09:29AA 599 2h 33m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 12:02 → SJC 13:49AA 2834 9h 19m 99% 67%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON