Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sat, Oct 10: WN 1773 at 06:46 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 18–28%.

Safest bet that day WN 1773 MCO 06:46 → SJU 09:40 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest B6 1133 MCO 12:37 → SJU 15:38 · 31% chance 15+ min late · usually 72% on time

Every nonstop on Sat, Oct 10

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1773 Southwest	MCO 06:46	SJU 09:40	7%	1%	5.3%	no record
F9 3506 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 06:31	SJU 09:42	14%	3%	7.5%	68%
B6 1033 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 07:15	SJU 10:15	17%	5%	8.0%	74%
WN 2802 Southwest	MCO 09:16	SJU 12:20	18%	3%	6.1%	no record
F9 4726 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 23:17	SJU 02:15	18%	7%	4.9%	77%
WN 4903 Southwest	MCO 10:31	SJU 13:35	21%	3%	4.8%	no record
F9 2250 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 18:32	SJU 21:46	23%	7%	4.9%	87%
F9 1746 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 19:15	SJU 22:33	24%	8%	4.8%	66%
WN 2807 Southwest	MCO 20:56	SJU 00:00	24%	5%	2.0%	no record
F9 1824 Frontier Flight history →	MCO 15:28	SJU 18:40	24%	7%	7.3%	79%
WN 1913 Southwest	MCO 18:36	SJU 21:40	25%	6%	2.0%	no record
B6 133 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 11:40	SJU 14:40	27%	8%	5.9%	86%worse than usual
WN 1826 Southwest	MCO 12:21	SJU 15:25	28%	4%	7.3%	no record
B6 433 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 19:08	SJU 22:13	28%	12%	2.6%	69%
WN 275 Southwest	MCO 16:11	SJU 19:15	28%	6%	3.4%	no record
B6 1333 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 15:58	SJU 19:00	30%	11%	5.1%	75%
B6 1133 JetBlue Flight history →	MCO 12:37	SJU 15:38	31%	10%	7.9%	72%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON