Saturday, October 10 · typical odds for a Saturday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Sun 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sat, Oct 10: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 07:15, is the safest bet: 80% chance of reaching Sacramento on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 61% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 2808 Southwest	MCO 16:31	SMF 19:25	27%	6%	4.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Sacramento on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Sacramento is 3 h behind Orlando). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	MCO 07:15 → SLC 09:55DL 2025	1h 40m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:35 → SMF 12:16DL 1423	8h 01m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	MCO 09:05 → SEA 12:12DL 347	2h 28m Seattle	SEA 14:40 → SMF 16:39DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest	10h 34m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	MCO 15:00 → MSP 17:39DL 1208	2h 22m Minneapolis	MSP 20:01 → SMF 21:51DL 574	9h 51m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	MCO 10:45 → SLC 13:21DL 2031	2h 04m Salt Lake City	SLC 15:25 → SMF 16:07DL 1342	8h 22m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	MCO 07:00 → MSP 09:26DL 1250	58m Minneapolis	MSP 10:24 → SMF 12:09DL 1701	8h 09m	93%	77%
Delta Details →	MCO 05:30 → ATL 07:03DL 1548	2h 13m Atlanta	ATL 09:16 → SMF 11:00DL 904	8h 30m	97%	76%
United Details →	MCO 10:00 → DEN 12:00UA 1022	3h 58m Denver	DEN 15:58 → SMF 17:35UA 1208	10h 35m	99%	73%
United Details →	MCO 15:13 → IAH 17:03UA 2456	3h 32m Houston	IAH 20:35 → SMF 22:43UA 1148	10h 30m	99%	71%
Tight connection: often missed
JetBlue Details →	MCO 14:57 → JFK 17:44B6 1084	56m New York	JFK 18:40 → SMF 22:10B6 161	10h 13m	61%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sat, Oct 10 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON